{"id":15267,"date":"2025-04-29T19:44:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T10:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/?p=15267"},"modified":"2025-04-29T19:51:01","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T10:51:01","slug":"%e3%82%a8%e3%83%aa%e3%82%aa%e3%83%83%e3%83%88%e6%b3%a2%e5%8b%95%e5%ae%9f%e8%b7%b5%e3%82%ab%e3%82%a6%e3%83%b3%e3%83%88%e3%81%8c%e4%b8%80%e7%9b%ae%e3%81%a7%e3%82%8f%e3%81%8b%e3%82%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/?p=15267","title":{"rendered":"\u3010FX\u3011\u30a8\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u201c\u5b9f\u8df5\u30ab\u30a6\u30f3\u30c8\u201d\u304c\u4e00\u76ee\u3067\u308f\u304b\u308b\u795e\u753b\u50cf7\u9078\u30102025\u5e74\u6700\u65b0\u7248\u3011\ud83d\udc3b\u200d\u2744\ufe0f\u2728"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"break-words\" dir=\"auto\">\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u81ea\u7136\u6cd5\u5247\u306b\u5f93\u3044\u30015\u3064\u306e\u6ce2\uff08\u63a8\u9032\u6ce2\uff09\u30683\u3064\u306e\u6ce2\uff08\u4fee\u6b63\u6ce2\uff09\u3067\u69cb\u6210\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u8ad6\u3058\u3083\u3002Ralph Nelson Elliott\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u3084\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u52d5\u5411\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u30015\u3064\u306e\u56f3\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u305d\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u3092\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u304c\u3001\u5404\u56f3\u306e\u8aac\u660e\u3092\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u306b\u3082\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u30ea\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30f3\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u306a\u304a\u3001\u753b\u50cf\u305d\u306e\u3082\u306e\u306f\u898b\u3089\u308c\u306c\u305f\u3081\u3001\u8a18\u4e8b\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u3092\u57fa\u306b\u60f3\u50cf\u3057\u3066\u9032\u3081\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\ud83d\udc3b\u200d\u2744\ufe0f\ud83d\udcad<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"\" dir=\"auto\">\u8a18\u4e8b\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u3068\u56f3\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u5206\u6790<\/h4>\n<p class=\"break-words\" dir=\"auto\">\u8a18\u4e8b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30bb\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u5206\u304b\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u5404\u56f3\u3054\u3068\u306b\u30a8\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u306e\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u3001\u8abf\u67fb\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u307e\u3068\u3081\u305f\u8868\u3068\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u8aac\u660e\u3092\u52a0\u3048\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"overflow-x-auto my-2\" dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"table-outer\"><table dir=\"auto\">\n<thead class=\"border-b border-primary\/20\">\n<tr class=\"border-primary\/10\">\n<th class=\"break-words\">\u30bb\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/th>\n<th class=\"break-words\">\u8a18\u4e8b\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u306e\u8981\u7d04<\/th>\n<th class=\"break-words\">\u753b\u50cf\u306e\u60f3\u5b9a\u5185\u5bb9<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr class=\"border-primary\/10\">\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u56f3A-1<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u5178\u578b\u7684\u306a5\u6ce2\u69cb\u9020\u3002\u4e0a\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\uff08\u30b8\u30b0\u30b6\u30b0\uff09\u3001\u4e0b\u306f\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u3055\u308c\u305f5\u6ce2\uff081\u21923\u21925\u306f\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u30012\u30fb4\u306f\u8abf\u6574\uff09\u3002\u300c\u30b9\u30b1\u30eb\u30c8\u30f3\u300d\u3092\u8996\u899a\u5316\u3057\u3001\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u30c0\u30a4\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30b9\u3067\u78ba\u8a8d\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u7df4\u7fd2\u306b\u6700\u9069\u3002<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3068\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u3055\u308c\u305f5\u6ce2\u306e\u6bd4\u8f03\u56f3\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"border-primary\/10\">\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u56f3B-5<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c138.2%\u306e\u5f15\u304d\u623b\u3057\u3002\u6ce2(2)\u306f\u6ce2(1)\u306e0.382\u500d\u3001\u6ce2(3)\u306f1.618\u500d\u3067\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u53f3\u80a9\u306e\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u306f4\u6ce2\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u30011975-77\u5e74\u30c0\u30a6\u5e73\u5747\u9031\u8db3\u306e\u4f8b\u3002<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u6bd4\u7387\u3092\u793a\u3059\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3001\u6ce2\u306e\u9577\u3055\u3068\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u5f37\u8abf\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"border-primary\/10\">\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u56f3D-1<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u5fc3\u7406\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3068P\/C\u6bd4\u7387\u3002P\/C\u6bd4\u7387\u306e\u6025\u843d\u306f\u904e\u5ea6\u306a\u697d\u89b3\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3001\u9006\u8ee2\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30f3\u30021982,84,85\u5e74\u306e\u6bd4\u8f03\u300110\u65e5\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u3067\u300c\u30e0\u30fc\u30c9&gt;\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u300d\u3092\u5f37\u8abf\u3002<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">DJIA\u3068P\/C\u6bd4\u7387\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3001\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u6642\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"border-primary\/10\">\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u56f3E-3<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">NASDAQ 2000\u5e74\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306e\u8b66\u544a\u3002\u4e0a\u5e73\u884c\u30c1\u30e3\u30cd\u30eb\u3067\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30ebV\u6ce2\u306e\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3002\u6ce2III\u2192V\u306f2.618\u500d\u3067\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u6bd4\u7387\u306b\u5408\u81f4\u30012000\u5e742\u6708\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u5ba3\u8a00\u3002<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">NASDAQ\u9577\u671f\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3001\u6ce2\u52d5\u3068\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u6bd4\u7387\u306e\u91cd\u306d\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"border-primary\/10\">\n<td class=\"break-words\">\u56f3F-31<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">9.11\u306eVIX\u30b9\u30d1\u30a4\u30af\u3068\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u30029.11\u306f\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30ebIV\u306e\u4e2d\u70b9\u3001(a)(b)(c)\u306e\u8907\u96d1\u4fee\u6b63\u3067\u9577\u671f\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u300c\u6642\u9593\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u3002Prechter\u306e\u300c\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u6ce2\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u300d\u8996\u70b9\u3002<\/td>\n<td class=\"break-words\">VIX\u30b9\u30d1\u30a4\u30af\u3068\u9577\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u30019.11\u306e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h4 class=\"\" dir=\"auto\">\u5404\u56f3\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u89e3\u8aac<\/h4>\n<p class=\"break-words\" dir=\"auto\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5404\u56f3\u3092\u57fa\u306b\u30a8\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u3092\u3088\u308a\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u307b\u306e\u307c\u306e\u3068\u3001\u304f\u307e\u3089\u3057\u304f\u9032\u3081\u3066\u3044\u304f\u305e\u3044\ud83d\udc3e<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"83\" data-end=\"112\">1\ufe0f\u20e3 Figure A-1\uff1a\u5178\u578b5\u6ce2\u69cb\u9020 \ud83c\udf00<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15269\" src=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1440\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3.png 1440w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-3-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1440px) 100vw, 1440px\" \/><strong>\u56f3A-1: \u5178\u578b\u7684\u306a5\u6ce2\u69cb\u9020<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u30a8\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u306e\u57fa\u672c\u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u304c5\u3064\u306e\u6ce2\u3067\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u5f62\u6210\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c3\u3064\u306e\u6ce2\u3067\u4fee\u6b63\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3082\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u3053\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e0a\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u304c\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u306e\u30b8\u30b0\u30b6\u30b0\uff08\u7d30\u304b\u3044\u52d5\u304d\uff09\u3067\u3001\u4e0b\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u304c\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u3055\u308c\u305f5\u6ce2\uff081,2,3,4,5\uff09\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">1,3,5\u306f\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u65b9\u5411\uff08\u63a8\u9032\u6ce2\uff09\u30012\u30684\u306f\u8abf\u6574\u6ce2\uff08\u9006\u65b9\u5411\u306e\u5c0f\u3055\u306a\u4fee\u6b63\uff09\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u30c0\u30a4\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30b9\uff08\u4fa1\u683c\u3068\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u30ba\u30ec\uff09\u3067\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u6700\u9069\u3067\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u7df4\u7fd2\u306b\u3074\u3063\u305f\u308a\u3058\u3083\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u4e0a\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306f\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u306e\u8907\u96d1\u3055\u3092\u3001\u4e0b\u306f\u305d\u308c\u3092\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306b\u3057\u305f\u300c\u30b9\u30b1\u30eb\u30c8\u30f3\u300d\u3092\u8996\u899a\u5316\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u305e\u3044\ud83d\udc3b\u200d\u2744\ufe0f\ud83d\udcad<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\"><strong>\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u300c\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u300d\u3068\u300c\u7406\u8ad6\u306e\u67a0\u7d44\u307f\u300d\u306e\u9055\u3044\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u9aa8\u7d44\u307f\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3051\u51fa\u3059\u7df4\u7fd2\u306b\u6700\u9069\u3058\u3083\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"365\" data-end=\"368\" \/>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"370\" data-end=\"406\">2\ufe0f\u20e3 Figure B-5\uff1a\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c138.2 %\u62bc\u3057 \u2728<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15270\" src=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1440\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4.png 1440w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-4-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1440px) 100vw, 1440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"407\" data-end=\"528\">\uff081975-77\u5e74\u30fb\u30c0\u30a6\u5e73\u5747\u9031\u8db3\uff09\u200b\u200b<button class=\"ms-1 flex h-[22px] items-center rounded-xl px-2 relative bottom-[-2px] bg-[#f4f4f4] text-token-text-secondary! hover:bg-token-text-primary hover:text-token-main-surface-secondary! dark:bg-token-main-surface-secondary dark:hover:bg-token-text-primary\"><\/button><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u56f3B-5: \u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c138.2%\u306e\u5f15\u304d\u623b\u3057<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-secondary\" dir=\"auto\">\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u6bd4\u7387\u306f\u30a8\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u8981\u7d20\u3067\u3001\u4fee\u6b63\u6ce2\u304c\u524d\u306e\u6ce2\u306e\u4e00\u5b9a\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3067\u623b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u3053\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6ce2(2)\u304c\u6ce2(1)\u306e38.2%\u5f15\u304d\u623b\u3057\uff08\u6d45\u3044\u4fee\u6b63\uff09\u3001\u6ce2(3)\u304c\u6ce2(1)\u306e1.618\u500d\u3067\u4f38\u3073\u308b\u4f8b\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u6ce2(4)\u306f\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\uff084\u3064\u306e\u5c0f\u3055\u306a\u6ce2\u3067\u69cb\u6210\uff09\u3067\u30011975-77\u5e74\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u5e73\u5747\u9031\u8db3\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u4f8b\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u306e\u7dda\u304c\u5f15\u304b\u308c\u3001\u6ce2\u306e\u9577\u3055\u304c\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u305e\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\"><strong>\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u306e\u6570\u5024\u304c\u3069\u3046\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u73fe\u308c\u308b\u304b\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u898b\u305b\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306b\u306f\u6ce2\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u3068\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"693\" data-end=\"732\">3\ufe0f\u20e3 Figure D-1\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u5fc3\u7406\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\ud83d\udcc8\/P : C\u30ec\u30b7\u30aa<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15271\" src=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1440\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5.png 1440w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-5-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1440px) 100vw, 1440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"733\" data-end=\"855\">\uff081982\u30fb84\u30fb85\u5e74 10\u65e5\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\uff09\u200b\u200b<button class=\"ms-1 flex h-[22px] items-center rounded-xl px-2 relative bottom-[-2px] bg-[#f4f4f4] text-token-text-secondary! hover:bg-token-text-primary hover:text-token-main-surface-secondary! dark:bg-token-main-surface-secondary dark:hover:bg-token-text-primary\"><\/button><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u56f3D-1: \u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u5fc3\u7406\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3068P\/C\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-secondary\" dir=\"auto\">\n<li class=\"break-words\">P\/C\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u30d7\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30b3\u30fc\u30eb\u6bd4\u7387\uff09\u306f\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306e\u30bb\u30f3\u30c1\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\uff08\u6c17\u5206\uff09\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3001\u6bd4\u7387\u304c\u4e0b\u304c\u308b\u3068\u697d\u89b3\u7684\u3001\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3068\u60b2\u89b3\u7684\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u3053\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u306f\u3001P\/C\u6bd4\u7387\u306e\u6025\u843d\u304c\u904e\u5ea6\u306a\u697d\u89b3\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\uff08\u9006\u8ee2\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30f3\uff09\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">1982,84,85\u5e74\u306e3\u3064\u306e\u671f\u9593\u309210\u65e5\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u3067\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3001\u300c\u30e0\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u3088\u308a\u91cd\u8981\u300d\u3068\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u60f3\u50cf\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3067DJIA\u3068P\/C\u6bd4\u7387\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u4e26\u3079\u3066\u3042\u308a\u3001\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u6642\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u304c\u660e\u78ba\u3058\u3083\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\"><strong>\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306e\u5fc3\u7406\u304c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u306b\u3069\u3046\u5f71\u97ff\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u306b\u3082\u300c\u6c17\u5206\u304c\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3059\u300d\u3053\u3068\u304c\u4f1d\u308f\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u305e\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"976\" data-end=\"1015\">4\ufe0f\u20e3 Figure E-3\uff1aNASDAQ\u201c2000\u5929\u4e95\u201d\u8b66\u544a \ud83d\udea9<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15272\" src=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1440\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6.png 1440w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-6-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1440px) 100vw, 1440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u56f3E-3: NASDAQ 2000\u5e74\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306e\u8b66\u544a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-secondary\" dir=\"auto\">\n<li class=\"break-words\">2000\u5e74\u306eNASDAQ\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306f\u3001\u30a8\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3067\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30ebV\u6ce2\u306e\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u3068\u5206\u6790\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u4e0a\u306e\u5e73\u884c\u30c1\u30e3\u30cd\u30eb\u3067\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3057\u3001\u6ce2III\u2192V\u306e\u9577\u3055\u304c\u524d\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u306eV\u6ce2\u306e2.618\u500d\uff08\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u6bd4\u7387\uff09\u306b\u5408\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">2000\u5e742\u6708\u306e\u30ab\u30a6\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u5ba3\u8a00\u304c\u88cf\u4ed8\u3051\u3089\u308c\u30011940-2000\u5e74\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u5e73\u5747\u3082\u53c2\u8003\u306b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u9577\u671f\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306b\u6ce2\u52d5\u306e\u30e9\u30d9\u30eb\u3068\u30d5\u30a3\u30dc\u30ca\u30c3\u30c1\u6bd4\u7387\u304c\u91cd\u306d\u3089\u308c\u3001\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u304c\u660e\u78ba\u3058\u3083\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\"><strong>\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306a\u5927\u304d\u306a\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u6ce2\u52d5\u3067\u5206\u6790\u3057\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u793a\u3059\u826f\u3044\u4f8b\u3058\u3083\u306e\u3002\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306b\u306f\u53c2\u8003\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u305e\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"1281\" data-end=\"1333\">5\ufe0f\u20e3 Figure F-31\uff1a9.11\u5f53\u65e5VIX\u6025\u9a30\u3068Grand Supercycle \ud83c\udf10<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15273\" src=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1440\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7.png 1440w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-7-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1440px) 100vw, 1440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u56f3F-31: 9.11\u306eVIX\u30b9\u30d1\u30a4\u30af\u3068\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-secondary\" dir=\"auto\">\n<li class=\"break-words\">9.11\u306e\u51fa\u6765\u4e8b\u306f\u3001\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30ebIV\u306e\u4e2d\u70b9\u306b\u30de\u30c3\u30d4\u30f3\u30b0\u3055\u308c\u3001VIX\uff08\u6050\u6016\u6307\u6570\uff09\u304c\u30b9\u30d1\u30a4\u30af\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">(a)(b)(c)\u306e\u8907\u96d1\u4fee\u6b63\u3067\u9577\u671f\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u300c\u6642\u9593\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u304c\u884c\u308f\u308c\u3001Prechter\u306e\u300c\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u6ce2\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8996\u70b9\u304c\u53cd\u6620\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308b\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\">\u9577\u671f\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306bVIX\u306e\u30b9\u30d1\u30a4\u30af\u3068\u6ce2\u52d5\u306e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u30019.11\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u6ce2\u52d5\u306b\u3069\u3046\u7d44\u307f\u8fbc\u307e\u308c\u308b\u304b\u8996\u899a\u5316\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u305e\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"break-words\"><strong>\u30ea\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30f3<\/strong>: \u5916\u90e8\u306e\u5927\u304d\u306a\u51fa\u6765\u4e8b\u304c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u306b\u3069\u3046\u53cd\u6620\u3055\u308c\u308b\u304b\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3067\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3058\u3083\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u5168\u3066\u6ce2\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u304c\u4f1d\u308f\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1587\" data-end=\"1599\">\ud83d\udc3e\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/h3>\n<div class=\"group pointer-events-none relative flex justify-center *:pointer-events-auto\">\n<div class=\"tableContainer horzScrollShadows relative\">\n<div class=\"table-outer\"><table class=\"min-w-full\" data-start=\"1600\" data-end=\"1837\">\n<thead data-start=\"1600\" data-end=\"1621\">\n<tr data-start=\"1600\" data-end=\"1621\">\n<th data-start=\"1600\" data-end=\"1607\">\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7<\/th>\n<th data-start=\"1607\" data-end=\"1612\">\u884c\u52d5<\/th>\n<th data-start=\"1612\" data-end=\"1621\">\u56f3\u7248\u3067\u78ba\u8a8d<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody data-start=\"1636\" data-end=\"1837\">\n<tr data-start=\"1636\" data-end=\"1680\">\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1636\" data-end=\"1645\">\u2460 \u6ce2\u5f62\u8a8d\u8b58<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1645\" data-end=\"1661\"><strong data-start=\"1647\" data-end=\"1654\">A-1<\/strong>\u3067\u9aa8\u683c\u3092\u6697\u8a18<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1661\" data-end=\"1680\">\u57fa\u672c5-3\u69cb\u9020\u3092\u30b5\u30c3\u3068\u63cf\u3051\u308b\u304b<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1681\" data-end=\"1733\">\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1681\" data-end=\"1693\">\u2461 \u30ea\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30b9\u6e2c\u5b9a<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1693\" data-end=\"1720\"><strong data-start=\"1695\" data-end=\"1702\">B-5<\/strong>\u30670.382\/0.618\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1720\" data-end=\"1733\">\u8abf\u6574\u5b8c\u4e86\u3092\u5f85\u3064\u5fcd\u8010<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1734\" data-end=\"1780\">\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1734\" data-end=\"1745\">\u2462 \u5fc3\u7406\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1745\" data-end=\"1763\"><strong data-start=\"1747\" data-end=\"1754\">D-1<\/strong>\u3067\u6307\u6a19\u62e1\u6563\u3092\u76e3\u8996<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1763\" data-end=\"1780\">\u201c\u7fa4\u96c6\u304c\u71b1\u72c2\u3057\u305f\u3089\u9006\u5f35\u308a\u201d<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1781\" data-end=\"1837\">\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1781\" data-end=\"1791\">\u2463 \u30de\u30af\u30ed\u4fef\u77b0<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1791\" data-end=\"1817\"><strong data-start=\"1793\" data-end=\"1807\">E-3 &amp; F-31<\/strong>\u3067\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d<\/td>\n<td class=\"max-w-[calc(var(--thread-content-max-width)*2\/3)]\" data-start=\"1817\" data-end=\"1837\">\u77ed\u671f\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u3082\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u3092\u8aa4\u3089\u306a\u3044<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u30ea\u30aa\u30c3\u30c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u81ea\u7136\u6cd5\u5247\u306b\u5f93\u3044\u30015\u3064\u306e\u6ce2\uff08\u63a8\u9032\u6ce2\uff09\u30683\u3064\u306e\u6ce2\uff08\u4fee\u6b63\u6ce2\uff09\u3067\u69cb\u6210\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u8ad6\u3058\u3083\u3002Ralph Nelson Elliott\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u3084\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u52d5\u5411\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fxsenryaku"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15267"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15267\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15278,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15267\/revisions\/15278"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jyakusyadansei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}